With a barrage of reports that Rory McIlroy will soon sign a 10-year, $200 million equipment and apparel deal with Nike – coupled with McIlroy’s own admission that he’s been tinkering with new clubs – the transition for McIlroy from Titleist to Nike now seems imminent. “I’m a Titleist player until the end of the year, and I’ve made no commitment to any company for next year,” said McIlroy. “I have a process that we are working through and you’ll probably hear more about it in the next few weeks.”

While the reported move has already drawn criticism from the likes of Nick Faldo, I for one have no issue with the move. It’s easy to share Faldo’s opinion when you don’t have a $200 million contract in front of you, but I’d imagine it’s damn near impossible to turn down that kind of guaranteed money. Faldo’s opinion is based largely on the notion that any change in equipment will initially lead to you having less trust in your clubs, which can in turn shake your confidence when  you’re not sure if it’s the Indian or the arrow leading to errant shots. While I see Faldo’s point, I think Rory has picked the perfect time of year to experiment with new clubs. Couple that with the fact that all of the major equipment manufacturers make awesome stuff, and I think Rory has nothing to worry about. On top of this, Nike is reportedly bringing in one of Cleveland/Srixon’s former top designers exclusively to match Rory with the equipment that works best for him, much like they did when they lured Tom Stites away from Titleist and made him Nike Golf’s Chief of Design (essentially to work with Tiger Woods). Rory will also continue to play equipment with same shafts that he has been using, a key to consistent shot-making.

All of this aside, I stand by the notion that if you’re that good at golf, you can play with a wooden spoon. Give Rory a set of ladies clubs and he’ll shoot a 65 on your home course with ease.

With the switch now seemingly imminent, one interesting by-product of the move is that Tiger Woods is no longer Nike’s highest paid golfer. Will the man who essentially built Nike’s golf division on his back now play second fiddle? Far from it. While Rory is the world’s current #1 player and their highest paid golfer, Rory is no match for what Tiger does for the Nike brand. No athlete in history has ever touched Tiger’s marketability – his ability to reach what has long been a historically Caucasian market, coupled with the Asian market and the African-American market is unmatched. He’s brought more people to the game who otherwise may never have found it than any player ever will. Rory’s a white kid from Ireland, and no matter how good he becomes, he’ll never be as valuable to Nike as Tiger.

That said, you have to credit Nike for  a brilliant business move. Nike knows Tiger as well as anybody, and they clearly believe that he has plenty of golf left in him. By bringing Rory onboard they’ve further fueled the growing Woods-McIlroy rivalry. As the golf world drools over Woods-McIlroy showdowns that you know will happen for years to come, both men will be donning the Nike Swoosh. The best golf ever played may very well be in front of us, and Nike is positioning itself as the gold standard of the game.

In signing Rory, Nike is also stepping pretty solidly on Titleist’s neck. Long considered arguably the best equipment company in the game, Nike has used it’s seemingly endless resources to squash the competition. While I’m something of a golf traditionalist and yearn for the days of the best players hitting MacGregors and Wilson Staffs, I’m aware that that will never happen again. I’ll never root for any corporate takeover, but you have to admit Nike is pulling all the right strings in their golf division.

Tiger will always be the man at Nike, but the new kid will certainly position them as golf’s premier equipment company well into the future.

The 2012 Ryder Cup is in the books, and all of the stereotypes have seemingly come true – the Euros were gutsier, seemed to want it more, and made the putts when they had to. There’s little the US team can do except shake their heads, lay low during silly season, and get their games in order for the 2013 Masters. While nearly every player on the European squad stepped it up in the Sunday singles, here are the players that proved to be the X factor for the European team.

1) Martin Kaymer – Most people will call me crazy, but if you make a 5-foot putt that essentially decides the Ryder Cup then you’re my Ryder Cup hero #1A. Kaymer’s deciding putt was dead center after Steve Stricker forced him to make it, with only Tiger Woods and his 1-up lead over Francesco Molinari left on the course. If Kaymer had missed, the Cup in all likelihood would have been won by Woods in the final pairing – good enough for me. Few players have ever had a putt under that much pressure, and Kaymer proved to be up to the task.

2) Ian Poulter – Ian Poulter put up one of the finest performances in the history of the Ryder Cup, no doubt. Going a perfect 4-0, Poulter’s performance was as cold blooded as could be. He’s an easy villain, but you have to give it up for his performance between the ropes. No matter how you cut it, this guy is an all-time Ryder Cupper - now owning a 12-3 career record. But God is he annoying.

3) Justin Rose - The putts that Justin Rose holed on 16, 17, and 18 allowed him to eek out an improbable win over Phil Mickelson after finding himself 1-down with 3 to play. The definition of clutch on all three holes, Phil could do little but applaud as Rose would not be denied. Without this crucial birdie-birdie finish, the Cup resides in US hands. As one of two Europeans to tee it up in every single event, Rose finished 3-2-0 for the week.

Honorable Mention: Luke Donald - Luke Donald went 2-2-0 for the week, but he gets the honorable mention nod for setting the pace on Sunday. As the first match out on the course for the Euros, Donald was able to get up on Bubba Watson early, establishing some much-needed momentum. His final round was pretty close to flawless, featuring 6 birdies in 17 holes.

You got to hand it to the Euros – they went out there and did what they needed to do to seize this thing.

While golf fans everywhere have yearned for a rival for Tiger Woods, the reality is that Tiger has long been a golfer without a true peer. As the landscape of Woods’ life and golf game has changed, it appears that this may as well. So while we continue to watch Tiger challenge Rory McIlroy throughout this year’s Fed Ex Cup, let’s reflect on the players who have mounted the biggest challenge to Tiger’s supremacy.

1) Rory McIlroy – Tiger Woods is smart enough to know that Rory McIlroy is different. He’s seen a lot of up and coming “young guns” come up hot only to flame out, but in Rory he sees more of… himself. He sees an uber-talented kid winning majors in his early twenties. He sees that he’s similarly unflappable. He sees that he’s almost untouchable at the moment. But most importantly, he sees that he has that sixth gear that only the greats possess and that he wants it. He wants in that bad.

But while Rory only has two major victories in his young career, both were by a Woods-like 8 shots. I’m not here to say that Woods and McIlroy will go on to hold a similar place in golf history – I don’t think they will – but I’m here to say that Rory is better than Tiger right now, and Tiger knows it. Tiger will, 100% bounce back from whatever you want to call the lull he’s in right now to challenge Rory for what has so long been his – the title of the best player in the world. And that, I’m hoping, will provide the rivalry we’ve all been waiting for for so long – and perhaps the best golf ever played. I for one think that’s a likely reality, and can’t imagine what would be more fun to watch happen to this sport.

2) Ernie Els - Soon after Tiger Woods said “Hello, world” and announced that he’d be turning pro and signing an endorsement deal with Nike, Ernie Els captured his second US Open championship. He was a known, established commodity in the golf world and as Tiger came up Els was one of the giants of the game he’d have to dethrone. 15 years later Ernie has managed to capture 2 additional majors, but he’s also racked up 15 additional top 3 finishes in majors. In 2000, Woods best season as a pro, Els came in second place in the Masters, the US Open, and the Open Championship.

Els has also been famously forthcoming about all things Woods, often offering up opinions on Tiger’s game, supremacy compared to other players, and even his off course issues.  Els would manage to play at Tiger’s level at times as well, with the 3-hole playoff for the 2003 President’s Cup being perhaps the best display of clutch putting I’ve ever seen. All of that said, I don’t think Tiger ever felt much of a threat from Els. My guess would be that Tiger holds a deep respect for all aspects of Els’ game, but has few doubts about his ability to beat him head to head.

3) Vijay Singh – Vijay Singh’s rivalry with Tiger Woods really blossomed in 2003, then matured throughout the 2004 season. In ’04 Singh would win 9 tournaments, including the PGA Championship, before overtaking Tiger Woods for #1 in the Official World Golf Rankings – a spot Woods had held for 264 consecutive weeks. He was also named the PGA Tour’s Player of the Year. While it’s undeniable that Vijay wasn’t derailed that much by Woods in the majors (despite his 3 major victories he only had 5 top 3 finishes), his 2004 season was the only instance of true Woods-like dominance in the midst of the Woods era, with the possible exception being Padraig Harrington’s 2008 campaign.

4) Phil Mickelson – In Hank Haney’s book The Big Miss he dishes on Woods’ views of Mickelson stating, “Most of it is that Mickelson possesses the kind of talent that has made him a legitimate threat to Tiger’s supremacy. Phil’s popularity with fans and gentle treatment from the media add to Tiger’s annoyance. For years, Tiger reveled in the idea that Mickelson had trouble playing in his presence.” And while there’s no doubt that to this point Phil Mickelson has been considered Tiger’s biggest rival, the rivalry most certainly has not lived up to the hype.

Truthfully, Phil hasn’t had much more luck than Ernie against Tiger. He’s managed to win 4 majors, be he also has 18 top 3 finishes. A closer examination of their records suggests that Ernie lost as Tiger’s hands more often than Phil did – in fact Phil has only been runner-up to Tiger in a major once. I think Tiger’s perspective on Mickelson is more based in his recognition of Phil’s talent than a true respect for him game. He roars at the opportunity to step on this dimwit.

5) Honorable (or pityable?) mention - Chris Dimarco. You’ve got to feel bad for the man. He finished runner-up to Woods in a major twice, as well as once in a World Golf Championship event. And his performances were all pure grit – he absolutely pushed Woods as much as anybody. As of now, he looks set to retire with 3 wins on the PGA tour and certainly no spot in history. Without Woods’ interference, he could be mentioned in the same breath as other players with multiple majors.

Will Rory or Woods spend more of the next 5 years ranked #1 in the world? How many majors will Rory end his career with? Will this rivalry even continue to play out? Let’s just say I’m optimistic, and it should be a hell of a lot of fun to watch unfold.

Historic. Dominating. Superlative. Brilliant. Those are merely feeble attempts to come up with a word that truly describes how good Rory McIlroy was yesterday. In winning the PGA Championship by 8 shots, Rory became the PGA Championship’s second youngest winner, but more impressively, he won by the largest margin of victory ever. At 23 years old, Rory joins the likes of Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only 23 year olds ever to capture the PGA Championship. That’s pretty decent company, no?

Seriously though, Rory’s final round 66 was arguably the best round of golf I’ve ever seen – the kid literally didn’t miss a shot. And make no mistake about it, Kiawah Island is a brutal course with trouble looming everywhere. McIlroy not only avoided all of the trouble, but he did so without showing anything resembling nerves – he was in total command the entire round. I recall Tiger’s 15 stroke victory at the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach, and while Rory didn’t win be 15, his final round was of that caliber. It may have even been better.

This kid’s the complete package – he bombs it, is flawless with his irons, great around the greens, and let’s just say he had 24 putts in his final 18 holes yesterday. Remarkable. Rory is simply proving what everyone has been saying all along – he has the 6th gear that the other players don’t. He’s got that freakish level of talent and the ability to go super low. Tiger is the only other player I’ve ever seen that out of. Color me impressed.

The win moves Rory to number one in the World Golf Rankings, and make no mistake about it, he’s the best player on the planet right now. That’s right, I said it – Rory McIlroy is a better golfer than Tiger Woods is right now. No doubt about it. And while Phil Mickelson has long been considered Tiger’s chief rival, I think it’s unquestionable that Rory will emerge as a much larger threat to Tiger in this second phase of his career. He’s got multiple majors already – both 8 shot victories – and at 23 years old, he’s got a real shot at being one of the greats. If Tiger regains his form, to see McIlroy and Woods go head to head when playing their best might be witnessing golf at the highest level it’s ever been played at.

Best of all, Rory seems like a an extremely likable champion. He seems as humble as could be for someone so talented, and he seemed genuinely giddy with joy following his performance yesterday. All those female golf fans that now hate Tiger’s guts? They’re going to love Rory. But perhaps more importantly, Rory’s performance yesterday will undoubtedly grab the attention of his peers. They all knew he was awesome already, but Rory just scared the heck out of his fellow touring pros. Remember how the rest of the guys used to look at Tiger? Rory just put the tour on notice – you know you can’t beat him when he’s at his best, and he knows it as well.

I’ve read a lot of golf books in my day – frankly more than I’d like to admit. Everything from Tiger Woods: How I Play Golf to the nearly 400-page gem that is Dave Pelz’s Putting Bible. I’ve read books detailing struggling pros trying make a living on the European Tour, and I’ve read whimsical stories about falling in love with the windswept links in Scotland. Classics like Harvey Penick’s Little Red Book and Ben Hogan’s Five Lessons couldn’t escape me. And of all the golf book’s I’ve read, Hank Haney’s The Big Miss was easily the biggest page-turner, and perhaps the most insightful.

Hank Haney was Tiger Woods’ coach for about 6 years, and The Big Miss is his account of their years spent together. The duo would eventually split shortly after the Tiger Woods scandal broke. Haney’s account of his time with Woods is absolute gold for any golf nerd – there’s all the detail you could ever want in there about Hany’s coaching strategies and his work on Tiger’s swing. But at the end of the day what makes this book so remarkable is the insight it provides into the person that is Tiger Woods; a person so often veiled from the public as a result of his self-inflicted invisibility cloak. There’s no doubt that after reading this book I feel like I have a better understanding of Tiger Woods than I ever did before.

Before I dive in and give you a few juicy teasers, let me first address the critics of this book. Many assume that Hank Haney was fired by Woods, and that the publication of The Big Miss was a move made out of spite and an attempt to make a quick buck. If you read this book, it seems as though nothing could be farther from the truth. Trust me, I’m not one to be easily sold – I’m about as skeptical as they come, and I certainly was as I began reading. “You can’t talk shit on Tiger!” was my general mind-set. Remember the look on your dad’s face when the 25-year-old came to pick up your 17-year-old sister to take her on a date? Double that. That’s how skeptical I was when I began reading this book. And having finished it, I truthfully believe that Haney’s honesty was what makes this book such a great read. He shares many actual e-mails and texts that he exchanged with Tiger, and if he was lying I’m sure that it wouldn’t take long for a major lawsuit to come down on him. Let’s face it, Tiger is uber protective of his image. And at the end of the day, Haney readily admits that the publication of The Big Miss likely won’t win him any points in Tiger’s eyes.

Moving on.

The picture that Haney paints of Tiger Woods is generally what I had always suspected, but much more severe. Essentially Tiger has been surrounded by people from a very young age that have wanted a piece of him, typically for at least partially selfish reasons. Because of this, Tiger lives a life very much in a bubble. But what’s so surprising is that even those close to him, even those within his “inner circle,” are not immune to the bubble. Tiger, even after years of working with Haney and spending 100+ days a year with him, would routinely be incredibly moody and would give him and everyone else around him the silent treatment. He wouldn’t return phone calls. He generally seemed to show little regard to those who were loyal to him and offered their friendship.

One minute example, which Haney goes back to many times in the book, is the issue of the popsicle (I know you can just feel the suspense building). Haney spent many a night with Tiger and Elin, and he recalls that in the beginning the TV was almost always on during dinner. Elin decided to instate a rule whereby the TV could not be on during dinner, only to have Tiger instate a rule that when he was done eating he could leave the dinner table. He would subsequently scarf down his dinner, leave the table, and go watch TV.

While watching TV after dinner, Tiger often sat with Haney and treated himself to a post-dinner sugar-free popsicle. For years he’d do this, and he never once offered or asked Haney if he’d like a popsicle as well. One day Haney wanted himself a goddamn popsicle, and he sat on the couch in bewilderment because of how uncomfortable he felt asking Tiger simply for popsicle. He finally asked Tiger, who looked at him like he had 5 heads then muttered, “Sure.” It’s this sort of thing that was very unbecoming to Haney.

With regards to Tiger’s game, Haney writes quite a bit about Tiger’s fear of “the big miss” – a big miss right or left, particularly with the driver, that would lead to bogey or worse. He sees this as Tiger’s biggest hurdle, and one he worked tirelessly to provide Tiger with a solution to. His solution was a stinger with a driver, as well as a fade with a driver that would cost Tiger distance but guaranteed him that he wouldn’t miss left. Tiger was reluctant to put either in to play. Haney also vividly recalls one of Tiger’s first victories that Elin was around for. Elin met Tiger after the round and suggested that they throw a little party to celebrate the win because “that’s what Jesper (Parnevik) used to do,” when Elin worked for him. Tiger’s response was along the lines of “I’m not Jesper, and we’re not having a party. We’re supposed to win.”

Obviously the book is filled with details about the days leading up to and immediately after the Tiger Woods scandal broke. Haney vehemently states that neither himself nor Steve Williams had any idea of the goings-on. But the scandal aside, there are plenty of other glorious first-hand details in the book. For example, Haney shares a text that Tiger sent to him after Ian Poulter bummed a ride back to Florida on Tiger’s plane. Yes, Tiger thinks Poulter is a d-bag.

Haney is also particularly protective of his record as Tiger’s coach. Many reflect on Tiger’s best years as being in the early 2000′s, and they undoubtedly were. And while Butch Harmon coached Tiger to 8 major championship victories, Haney managed only 6 in his years with Tiger. That said, it is true that the swing Haney taught Tiger won a higher percentage of the time.

Ultimately it would be Haney’s call to break off his relationship with Tiger. He felt he had been as loyal as could be, and had genuinely tried to be the best friend and coach to Tiger that he could. But Tiger’s stand-offish nature, his reluctance to implement Haney’s ideas, and his general treatment of others drove Haney to end their relationship – an engagement for which Woods paid Haney only $50,000 per year.

But while much of what I’ve written about thus far sounds like sour grapes, Haney makes very deliberate efforts to not focus only on the negative. Haney is a man who has studied the great golfers in the history of the game as much as just about anybody, and he has no doubt that when Tiger plays at his highest level he’s far and away the best golfer that has ever lived. But perhaps more importantly, he holds himself and the others in Tiger’s inner circle accountable – accountable for not putting Tiger in check and pushing him to be less guarded, more honest, and generally a more well-rounded human being. In Haney’s eyes it was always all about Tiger with everybody around him, to the extent that no one dared question him or his actions. Tiger insulated himself, and ultimately if someone around him  had stood up to him and prompted him to be better, perhaps “The Big Miss” that we’ve seen as of late could have been avoided.

If you love golf or Tiger Woods, read this book. It’s fantastic insight into one of the most enigmatic athletes to ever reach the highest level of sport.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote that Tiger Woods should be the overwhelming favorite at the Open Championship at Royal Lytham & St. Annes. With the championship beginning Thursday, come Sunday afternoon Tiger could have finally silenced his critics and captured his 15th major championship – leaving him only 3 majors short of Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major championship victories.

I have always been one firmly in the “Tiger will reach Jack” camp – both before and after the scandal broke. Winning 4 more majors to tie Jack (and 5 to pass him) is no small feat – 5 majors in an entire career makes you an instant Hall of Famer. That said, Tiger has never been dealing the with same deck of cards as the rest of his mere mortal peers. While there are clear signs that dangers will continue to lurk during Tiger’s ascent of Mt. Nicklaus, no matter how I look at this thing it seems clear to me that Tiger will end up ahead of Jack. But how many majors will Tiger Woods retire with? Let’s tackle this question from a few different angles.

The basic, mathematical explanation – This formula is relatively simple, and perhaps the most accurate. To date, Tiger has played 64 major championships in his career, winning 14. This indicates a remarkable 21% winning percentage throughout his career. At this rate Tiger would need 23 more majors to win number 19, thus breaking Nicklaus’ record at the 2018 Masters.

Especially post-scandal, many will scoff at this. Here are a few of the most frequently cited reasons why this may seem unreasonable:

• Tiger is now 36 years old. For someone who first won a major in 1997, his “prime” is simply behind him.
• Tiger’s run of majors early in his career, at one point capturing 7 of 11 major titles, simply can’t be replicated.
• Tiger’s lost his advantage over other players, especially in terms of driving distance. Technology, age, and the fitness boom Tiger single-handedly created have since leveled the playing field.
• Tiger used to play a 43.5 inch Titleist 975D driver with a 43.5-inch steel shaft. He was considered long and straight. He now fears the “big miss” and doesn’t find the fairway as often having moved to a 45-inch graphite shafted driver.
• Tiger’s knee, which he’s had drained and operated on multiple times, will continue to inhibit his swing and keep him from playing or practicing as often.
• Tiger’s mental strength isn’t what it used to be. His time in a Mississippi clinic, as well as the scandal itself, broke him down. Doubt has crept into his psyche for maybe the first time.
• He’s tired and has lost of his drive. After what he’s been through in the past few years, how could be not be?
• Tiger’s feeling the pressure. The weight of the absurd expectations on him is beginning to wear him thin, and will only increase as he approaches Jack’s record. This was evidenced recently in his comments that he’s “only going to play for himself” – not Elin, not Nike, not Butch, not Stevie, not his foundation.

While I believe it’s true that all of these issues will affect Tiger to differing degrees, my counter argument is very simple – these issues have already had a massive influence on Tiger’s career, and I think they’ve mostly run their course. We’ve seen the knee and scandal-related issues in particular influence Tiger as of late – he hasn’t captured a major in his last 16 tries. Having finally returned to winning form this season, Tiger seems closer to being “back” than he has been in a few years. Think of it this way – before his recent 0-for-16 streak, Tiger had won 14 or 48 majors – an amazing 29% conversion rate. Given all he’s been through, I think assuming he can continue to convert at 21% is more than fair. Afterall, that means he doesn’t even average a major championship per year.

The length of a golfer’s career explanation – There’s  no doubt about it – none – that golfers are playing better later in their careers in this day and age. It’s a combination of technology and fitness. Fred Couples seems to almost win the Master’s every year at 50+, Tom Watson threw away a British Open at 59, and Vijay Singh won 9 times in a season and reached #1 in the world for the first time well after turning 40. Jack Nicklaus won 14 majors before his 37th birthday, and Tiger’s sitting on 14 with two majors to play before he’ll turn 37. He’s on pace, and will undoubtedly be a serious contender for longer than Nicklaus’ was.

I think that realistically, Tiger has 10 more years that he’ll be able to play at an exceptionally high level. Jack Nicklaus last won a major at 46, and trust me, Tiger at 46 will be a far superior physical specimen to Nicklaus at the same age. Assuming he misses a similar number of majors as he’s missed thus far throughout his career due to injury and other distractions (he’s missed 6 of 70 majors since 1995, or 8.57%) over the next 10 years, Tiger will play in 38 of the next 42 majors. If he continues to win at his 21% rate, Tiger will win 8 more majors in the next decade. That’d leave him with 22, well surpassing Nicklaus’ mark.

The focus explanation – For a long time now, I’ve made excuses for Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods. Just as both have been known to be “the best ever” at their respective sports, both have also received their share of criticism for some generally poor, selfish behavior. I am truly a believer in the school of thought that says to be the absolute best you need to be somewhat cocky, somewhat selfish, and able to put up blinders when need be in an effort to self-motivate yourself to the absolute highest level of performance. This is an argument for another day, but I think it’s one that’s shown itself with pretty significant regularity throughout history. Nick Faldo immediately comes to mind – his insularity, focus, and superiority over other players was striking similar to Tiger’s while he was golf’s undisputed best player in the late 80′s and early 90′s.

I think Tiger’s scandal will ultimately help him narrow his focus. He’s made it clear that his commitment to his sponsors and his marriage are not going to be what they once were. I think that once the immediate effects of the scandal are in his rear view, Tiger’s focus will narrow that much more – he’ll care about his kids and his golf game and little else. For Tiger, Jack Nicklaus’ record is a life long journey that he set out on at shortly after birth. Frankly, you just can’t say the same about any of his sponsorship deals or his marriage. His eyes are now on the prize more than ever before, and I don’t think they’ll waiver much in any direction (cue the waitress in the little back dress jokes).

So how can Tiger’s narrowed focus answer the how many majors question? It can’t in any way that’s highly measurable, but I think that it’s important in dispelling the critics who will cite outside distractions at the cause of Tiger’s derailment on his quest towards 19 majors.

The in-the-hunt explanation – Every golf fan knows that Tiger is the greatest closer in golf history – give him a lead in a major after three rounds, and he almost always gets the job done. That said, even the casual golf fans also knows that Tiger’s proven to have some issues with both his putter and especially his driver as of late. Going forward, Tiger’s swing needs to be good enough to consistently put himself in contention in the majors.

Of players with 3 or more majors, most tend to win about 1/3 of the time that they find themselves in the hunt. Nicklaus won 18 majors, but finished in the top 3 a total of 45 times – a conversion rate of 40%. Tiger has won 14 majors but only finished in the top 3 a total of 23 times – good for a 60% conversion rate. That said, Tiger’s going to need to put himself in the hunt at least 9 more times to win 5 additional majors, and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to keep converting when he’s in serious contention as efficiently as he has to date. With 64 starts at majors and 23 top 3 finishes, Tiger finds himself in serious contention about 35% of the time. Assuming he plays 42 more majors in his career, he’d be in contention 15 more times in his career. If he maintains his current conversion percentage, he’d capture 9 more majors. If he ended up closer to the 33% we’ve seen out of major champions with 3+ major victories, he’d win 5 more majors. So by this recipe conservatively we’re looking at 19 majors, and at his current rate of winning we’re looking closer to 23 titles.

With the insights gained from all of these explanations, deciding on a final number of majors for Tiger is as much an art as it is a science.  While the explanations above suggest that Tiger will end with a major total somewhere in the lower 20′s, I do think that in some cases we’re being a bit optimistic with regards to Tiger’s health and his ability to keep winning such a high percentage of the time. But more importantly, I worry about the amount of gas left in the tank. Why? Because after he wins his 19th he’ll have no higher mountain to climb. His life goal will have been achieved, as I think we’ll see his desire wane whether he likes it or not. This will conveniently happen as his children are in their teens, and his attention will be needed elsewhere.

Nick Faldo, a champion with whom I’ve already compared Tiger, speaks very candidly about losing the drive to practice to the extent that he needed to in order to be the best after winning his final major. Hank Haney, Tiger’s former coach, even wondered aloud about Tiger losing some degree of drive following his monumental win one leg at the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines.

At the end of his career, I think Tiger will have accumulated 20 major championships. So why 20 and not 19? Because the closest comparison to Tiger that I can make is the very man whose record he’s chasing, Jack Nicklaus. Nicklaus famously captured his final major at 46, years after his best game had left him. I’m predicting Tiger’s game will putter out (no pun intended) after he wins his 19th, but he’ll similarly give us one last glimpse of greatness well into the twilight of his career. One final fist pump, one final roar if you will. 20 majors is a good round number, and if Tiger gets there he’s undoubtedly the best in the history of the game.

The next great storyline in golf may be identifying the heir to Tiger’s throne. Inevitably another great one will rise, but I bet you Tiger’s record of 20 major championships lasts longer than I do.

Although few have seemingly noticed, Tiger Woods’ win at the AT&T National this past weekend gave him his third win of the season (the most on the PGA Tour) in his last seven events – a ridiculous 42.8% winning percentage as of late. In other words, Tiger’s game is starting to come around. Isn’t it funny how Tiger’s game is described as “coming around” when he’s won more than any of his peers? Regardless, everyone now knows that Tiger must win his first major since 2008 to officially be “back.” And with the Open Championship at Royal Lytham and St. Annes July 15-22, I think there’s an overwhelming case to make Tiger the favorite.

1) History – As far as I can tell Tiger Woods popped out of the womb with a flawless overlapping grip. He let out  brief cry, but instead of uttering “cookie” or “mama” be blurted out “I want 19 majors.” Tiger’s been a student of golf history for as long as he’s been a student of the game. He’s made so much history of his own that I won’t even begin to touch on his historic performances. But there’s no doubt Tiger shines at historic venues. He’s won more majors at Augusta than anywhere else, and two of his three Open Championships have come on the fabled links of St. Andrews. While all of the Open Championship venues are rich in history, Royal Lytham’s past is dripping with memorable moments and distinguished champions.

Most recently, David Duval defined his career by winning his one and only major at Royal Lytham in 2001. Tom Lehman, the ultimate grinder, captured the title at the 1996 Open. Seve Ballesteros won here twice, in 1988 and 1979. And perhaps most famously Bobby Jones himself out-dueled Walter Hagen in the 1926 Open Championship.

2) Royal Lytham’s bunkers – I’ve played St. Andrew’s, where Tiger Woods famously avoided all 112 bunkers en route to capturing the Open in 2000. Trust me, it looks as though there are bunkers everywhere. As for Royal Lytham, well, there are 206 bunkers on the course – an average of more than 11 per hole. Tiger’s performance in 2000 was just one example of his unmatched ability to carefully plot his way around a course. He’ll have a game plan, and he’ll stick to it. There will be a strong correlation at this event, much more so than a normal event, between avoiding bunkers and finishing high on the leaderboard. This should be right up Tiger’s alley.

3) Leave the driver in the bag – Bernard Darwin famously wrote of Royal Lytham, “Hit your ball to the right place and the way to the hole is open to you, but hit your ball to the wrong place and every kind of punishment, whether immediate or ultimate, will ensue.” To me, this is a recipe for keeping the driver in the bag. In Hank Haney’s book The Big Miss he notes that he was never comfortable watching Tiger with a driver in his hand in competition. If he hit a good one, he’d feel relieved. According to Haney, Tiger has never considered himself a good driver of the golf ball. He lives somewhat in fear of “the big miss.”

Whether that’s true or not (I tend to believe it’s at least somewhat true), I’ll never forget Tiger’s win in 2006 at Royal Liverpool. I’m pretty sure Tiger didn’t hit a single driver in the final round, opting for a steady dose of stingers, 4-irons, and an occasional 3-wood off the tee. For the week, he found the fairway and astounding 86% of the time, methodically plotting his way around the course while others bombed drivers and then dealt with the consequences. Tiger’s one of few players patient enough to do this, and his ability with his long and mid-irons may be his greatest non-mental advantage over his competition. I’d look for more of the same at Royal Lytham – it may be boring to watch, but it will work.

4) The greens – There’s no way around it – the greens at the British Open, regardless of venue, are slow by tour standards. Tiger’s struggles with the putter often come when he gets overly aggressive on birdie putts of over 20 feet, leading to three putts. In fact, Steve Williams famously kept a stat that when Tiger avoids three putting for all 72 holes, he wins 85% of the tournaments he plays in. The slow greens will limit Tiger’s 3-putts, and the severe undulations with appeal to Tiger’s creative side, which often brings the best out of his putter.

Perhaps more importantly, the slower greens mean that if Tiger has a putt to win it’ll likely be a putt he can actually hit with some force – a nice advantage when nerves are running high. Make no mistake about it, Tiger is the best pressure putter possibly ever. But he knows he needs this win, and the nerves will be running higher than normal.

5) Homecoming -  When Bobby Jones defeated Walter Hagen in 1926, he would famously receive a ticker tape parade through the streets on New York upon returning to the US. While there will be no such parade for Woods even if he wins, returning to the US with the Claret Jug in hand would be seen in a similar light in golf history. It’d serve as Tiger’s rebirth, the sports media would go gaga, and Tiger as we’ve come to know him will be considered “fixed.” If he does win, I can almost guarantee a PR tour of sorts with stops on Letterman, Sunday Conversation, etc.

While I don’t think Tiger feels like he needs to redeem himself whatsoever, nobody wants the major monkey off his back more than Woods. He knows what this win would mean in terms of silencing his critics, but more importantly he knows what it would mean to his charge on Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major championships. He wants the homecoming, and after all he’s been though in the last 4 years, he wants a win terribly. Tiger’s commitment to the game seems to finally be renewed in full, and his hunger is there arguably stronger than ever before.

Winning at Royal Lytham will require a game plan. The driver will stay in the bag, and the winner will plot along methodically avoiding bunkers. Darwin called Lytham, “A beast of a course, but a just beast.” That sounds to me like the type of course that the best player in the world will win on, and with history as a backdrop, Tiger Woods seems custom-made to return to the US much as Bobby Jones did in 1926. Advantage, Woods.

The scene could not have been scripted more appropriately – Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, Tiger on the cusp of tying Nicklaus in career PGA tour victories, and one horribly impossible shot finding the bottom of the cup and stirring up a fist pump reminiscent of the ghosts of Tiger’s past. If you’re a sports fan, you’ve seen the highlights by now – Sportscenter’s anchors were practically drooling on their desks waiting the deliver the highlights. And as a fan, Tiger’s second win of the year came as a reminder that at least some of that “old” Tiger magic is still in there.

By winning his 73rd PGA tour event, Tiger tied Jack Nicklaus for second most all-time – albeit at 10 years younger than Nicklaus was when he won his 73rd event. Only Sam Snead’s 82 victories sit ahead of Tiger – there’s little doubt that he’ll get there, but the real mountain that Tiger is trying to climb is winning 5 more major to surpass Nicklaus’ 18. Tying Jack with 73 wins was merely a stepping stone on Woods’ path to Mecca.

All of this got me thinking – I’ve heard so much about Tiger since his life took that dramatic turn two years ago. My friends who don’t follow golf closely have their opinions, my mom has her opinion – seemingly everyone has a dramatic opinion with regards to the current state of Tiger – both his golf game and his personal life. I’ve heard all parties out, and I still think the American public as a whole just isn’t getting it. It seems to me as though very few people outside of those who intimately cover Woods for a living have any clue.

Tiger Woods is misunderstood. That may be even more cliche than saying “Tiger banged so many waitresses” or “Tiger will never be the same.” Cliche, but I think very much true. For the record, I’d like to extrapolate on my opinions with regards to where Tiger is at – take them or leave them as you choose.

Tiger Woods is not “back.” His swing is different, his game is different. He’s not winning at the clip that he used to. He’s coming in 40th place in majors. He’s not dripping with sponsorship deals. That said, it is true that Tiger never left. Tiger Woods is Tiger Woods – the guy has had a lot on his mind these past two years, and golf took second place for the first time in his life. It hurt his game, and it probably shook his confidence, but to steal the lovely words of Josh Beckett “sometimes there are more important things.” The Tiger that never left was the Tiger that fist pumps, the Tiger that never misses a gutsy putt to bag championship. Tiger the competitor is the same as he’s ever been, and that’s the Tiger we all want to see. His game is now just now beginning to catch up.

I see two primary reasons for Tiger’s recent struggles – both of which seem amazingly obvious to me and have nothing to do with waitress A or waitress B in the little black dress. The first is swing changes. Tiger has a new coach, a new caddy, and a new swing – these changes take time to become repeatable enough that you can trust them under pressure. We’ve seen this with Tiger before, and we’re seeing it now.  Second, and even less surprising, is his personal life – his relationship with his kids specifically. I have no intimate knowledge of Woods’ family life, but I know that Tiger worships his parents and especially his dad, giving his upbringing a ton of credit for his success. Woods’ children are still too small to grasp the events that led to Elin attacking Tiger’s car with a golf club, but one day he’s going to have to explain himself. Few situations could be worse than explaining your unfaithfulness to your children, and I have no doubt that Tiger is driven to be the best possible dad that he can be with this glaring mark already on his record.

In general, Tiger is villianized by many as a cold-hearted adulterer, and his actions do speak for themselves. While I’m in no way defending Woods, how many of those passing judgement on him have been thrust into the international spotlight as a teenager? Woods was handed the world – all of the money, fame, talent, and yes women that he could ever want at an age that is just too young to be making fantastic decisions in the inevitable scenarios that he faced. He fell into some bad habits that clearly persisted throughout his marriage. Did Tiger have a Rolodex of women in every city he traveled to? I doubt it. I’m sure that his infidelity was no one-off, but the speculation of Woods’ hundreds of women is absurd. For anyone in the spotlight to the degree that Tiger is, it would be impossible for that lifestyle to last as long as it did prior to him getting caught.

So what’s my point in all this? Whether you want to believe it or not, Tiger is a loving father to his kids and was not running a Charlie Sheen-esque operation. I don’t make excuses for anyone who is given the world and screws it up, but I think those passing judgement need to imagine the unique circumstances Woods has faced. Did he make mistakes? Was he an ass? Absolutely. But is he the monster he’s been portrayed as? No sir.

As for his game, I don’t think Tiger will ever be the Tiger of 2000. I don’t expect 10+ win seasons, I don’t expect he’ll ever be winning majors by 15 strokes. I do expect Tiger to pass Sam Snead’s record of 82 victories, and I do expect him to pass Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors. Tiger’s had more conviction towards that latter goal than he ever had towards his marriage – that’s just the reality of it. Only one person is destined to be the best golfer in the history of the sport, and that man is Tiger Woods. Trust me, it’s not a curse.

From here on out, Tiger will regain his form. He’ll win his next major sooner rather than later, and it will be a big deal. But Tiger has in many ways screwed himself by bringing a younger generation to the game – more players, younger players, nearly of whom are trying to replicate the game that has made Tiger so famous. As Tiger gets older he’ll win more than his share – likely more than anyone else – but I think this new Tiger will only win when his game is on. If he’s playing well he’ll be capable of winning any week and on any course, but his B- game just isn’t going to lead to W’s anymore. That’s the new Tiger Woods as I see it… do you agree?

Somewhat lost in the sporting news this past weekend was one hell of a golf tournament. Tiger Woods showed the world for the first time that he still has that sixth gear, shooting a career best 62 after many considered him to be out of contention. The round would force young Rory McIlroy to play flawless golf coming in, and he did just that to capture the Honda Classic. At 22 years old, Rory McIlroy is one day shy of three years younger than me – and for the first time in his life, he’s the best golfer on the planet. God damn I’m jealous, but I think most golf fans are happy to see Rory claim golf’s throne.

McIlroy first won on the European tour in 2009, first won on the PGA tour in 2010, and first won a major in 2011. Much like Woods, winning was not a problem at an early age – it was an expectation. Rory has now won 2 PGA tour tournaments, 2 European tour tournaments, and the 2011 US Open. It’s far to soon to call him Tiger’s rival, and Tiger isn’t the Tiger we’ve always known at this point anyways. Regardless, the golfing world can’t help but drool thinking about if these two guys are able to both hit their stride this season. I think Sunday’s Honda tournament was merely a sneak peek at a showdown we’ll see again later this year.

McIlroy seeming has it all at the moment – he’s got an explosive game, that shows no real flaws tee to green. He’s got confidence, at this point bordering on the cockiness that I think is required of any World #1. He’s got the Irish thing going on, he’s affable, and he’s got the support of his fellow pros. Padraig Harrington and Geoff Ogilvy, to name two, are a couple of the more recent players with championship caliber games to sing Rory’s praises. “Since the first day I saw him play, he was a level above us,” said Ogilvy.

I for one am a McIlroy fan, and I do think that he’ll push Tiger someday. I’m not jumping on the “heir apparent’ bandwagon just yet – we heard that with the likes of Anthony Kim, and others, who ultimately faded. But as far as the young guns go I consider Rory to be the best, followed shortly thereafter by Dustin Johnson.

Most of the golfing world doesn’t truly awaken until the Masters. I suspect Rory will be the favorite – but Tiger will be the one slipping into the green jacket.

There was a tremor in the force this evening, as two Tiger Woods putts dropped stirring the golf universe.  Vijay Singh saw a flash of light on a practice range in Fiji. Ernie Els awoke with a start in South Africa. Phil Mickelson wet the bed. Wake up golf world, Tiger Woods has returned.

With his first win in nearly two years, Tiger Woods answered our questions. Under pressure Woods’ hands were calm, stroking two beautiful putts into the center of the cup on the 17th and 18th holes. There were no flashbacks to that cocktail waitress in Vegas. There were no what about my kids twitches as he pulled the putter back. The impassioned fist pump ensued, and Zach Johnson could only shrug and smile. The young guns suddenly remembered that this was the guy they grew up envying.

And for Tiger Woods, well he felt awesome once again.

Whether you’re a Woods fan or not, this win was a long time coming for Tiger. He’s needed to make strides in his personal life as well as in his golf life, and after two dismal years his game is coming around. Tiger’s final round at the President’s Cup was the start. This win was the body of Tiger’s comeback act. Now it’s time for Augusta to be the climax of Tiger’s ascent back to the top of the golf world.

We’ll have to wait until April to see if Tiger can capture a major once again and resume his attack on Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major victories. But in the meantime it’s nice to know that Tiger’s got the rest of the tour shifting uneasily in their seats, and Tiger Woods’ brand of golf is thrilling and fun to watch once again.