With a barrage of reports that Rory McIlroy will soon sign a 10-year, $200 million equipment and apparel deal with Nike – coupled with McIlroy’s own admission that he’s been tinkering with new clubs – the transition for McIlroy from Titleist to Nike now seems imminent. “I’m a Titleist player until the end of the year, and I’ve made no commitment to any company for next year,” said McIlroy. “I have a process that we are working through and you’ll probably hear more about it in the next few weeks.”

While the reported move has already drawn criticism from the likes of Nick Faldo, I for one have no issue with the move. It’s easy to share Faldo’s opinion when you don’t have a $200 million contract in front of you, but I’d imagine it’s damn near impossible to turn down that kind of guaranteed money. Faldo’s opinion is based largely on the notion that any change in equipment will initially lead to you having less trust in your clubs, which can in turn shake your confidence when  you’re not sure if it’s the Indian or the arrow leading to errant shots. While I see Faldo’s point, I think Rory has picked the perfect time of year to experiment with new clubs. Couple that with the fact that all of the major equipment manufacturers make awesome stuff, and I think Rory has nothing to worry about. On top of this, Nike is reportedly bringing in one of Cleveland/Srixon’s former top designers exclusively to match Rory with the equipment that works best for him, much like they did when they lured Tom Stites away from Titleist and made him Nike Golf’s Chief of Design (essentially to work with Tiger Woods). Rory will also continue to play equipment with same shafts that he has been using, a key to consistent shot-making.

All of this aside, I stand by the notion that if you’re that good at golf, you can play with a wooden spoon. Give Rory a set of ladies clubs and he’ll shoot a 65 on your home course with ease.

With the switch now seemingly imminent, one interesting by-product of the move is that Tiger Woods is no longer Nike’s highest paid golfer. Will the man who essentially built Nike’s golf division on his back now play second fiddle? Far from it. While Rory is the world’s current #1 player and their highest paid golfer, Rory is no match for what Tiger does for the Nike brand. No athlete in history has ever touched Tiger’s marketability – his ability to reach what has long been a historically Caucasian market, coupled with the Asian market and the African-American market is unmatched. He’s brought more people to the game who otherwise may never have found it than any player ever will. Rory’s a white kid from Ireland, and no matter how good he becomes, he’ll never be as valuable to Nike as Tiger.

That said, you have to credit Nike for  a brilliant business move. Nike knows Tiger as well as anybody, and they clearly believe that he has plenty of golf left in him. By bringing Rory onboard they’ve further fueled the growing Woods-McIlroy rivalry. As the golf world drools over Woods-McIlroy showdowns that you know will happen for years to come, both men will be donning the Nike Swoosh. The best golf ever played may very well be in front of us, and Nike is positioning itself as the gold standard of the game.

In signing Rory, Nike is also stepping pretty solidly on Titleist’s neck. Long considered arguably the best equipment company in the game, Nike has used it’s seemingly endless resources to squash the competition. While I’m something of a golf traditionalist and yearn for the days of the best players hitting MacGregors and Wilson Staffs, I’m aware that that will never happen again. I’ll never root for any corporate takeover, but you have to admit Nike is pulling all the right strings in their golf division.

Tiger will always be the man at Nike, but the new kid will certainly position them as golf’s premier equipment company well into the future.

The 2012 Ryder Cup is in the books, and all of the stereotypes have seemingly come true – the Euros were gutsier, seemed to want it more, and made the putts when they had to. There’s little the US team can do except shake their heads, lay low during silly season, and get their games in order for the 2013 Masters. While nearly every player on the European squad stepped it up in the Sunday singles, here are the players that proved to be the X factor for the European team.

1) Martin Kaymer – Most people will call me crazy, but if you make a 5-foot putt that essentially decides the Ryder Cup then you’re my Ryder Cup hero #1A. Kaymer’s deciding putt was dead center after Steve Stricker forced him to make it, with only Tiger Woods and his 1-up lead over Francesco Molinari left on the course. If Kaymer had missed, the Cup in all likelihood would have been won by Woods in the final pairing – good enough for me. Few players have ever had a putt under that much pressure, and Kaymer proved to be up to the task.

2) Ian Poulter – Ian Poulter put up one of the finest performances in the history of the Ryder Cup, no doubt. Going a perfect 4-0, Poulter’s performance was as cold blooded as could be. He’s an easy villain, but you have to give it up for his performance between the ropes. No matter how you cut it, this guy is an all-time Ryder Cupper - now owning a 12-3 career record. But God is he annoying.

3) Justin Rose - The putts that Justin Rose holed on 16, 17, and 18 allowed him to eek out an improbable win over Phil Mickelson after finding himself 1-down with 3 to play. The definition of clutch on all three holes, Phil could do little but applaud as Rose would not be denied. Without this crucial birdie-birdie finish, the Cup resides in US hands. As one of two Europeans to tee it up in every single event, Rose finished 3-2-0 for the week.

Honorable Mention: Luke Donald - Luke Donald went 2-2-0 for the week, but he gets the honorable mention nod for setting the pace on Sunday. As the first match out on the course for the Euros, Donald was able to get up on Bubba Watson early, establishing some much-needed momentum. His final round was pretty close to flawless, featuring 6 birdies in 17 holes.

You got to hand it to the Euros – they went out there and did what they needed to do to seize this thing.

Phil Mickelson is in every sense a Ryder Cup veteran – when he tees it up at Medinah later this week he’ll be making his 9th Ryder Cup appearance. Unfortunately for the US, despite Phil’s talents and aggressive style of play he has a lousy Ryder Cup record of just 11-17-6. He’s performed particularly poorly in the team events (7-13-6) and is batting just .500 in singles. So is there reason to believe that this year will be different? I think so. Here are my 5 reasons why Phil will tear up Medinah and the Euros.

1) Phil is hot at the moment – Almost every Ryder Cup captain likes to go with the hot hand, and Phil is certainly hot at the moment. After a relatively poor season in which Phil won only a single tournament, he turned it on during the FedEx Cup playoffs (finishing 5th overall). Mickelson shot 7 consecutive rounds of 68 or lower throughout the Deutsche Bank and BMW Championships, en route to finishes of T4 and T2 respectively. During this streak Mickelson earned over $1 million – he’s clearly returned to form just in time.

2) The crowd is in his corner – Phil is, without a doubt, the US player that the fans will get behind the most. In major events (see the 2002 US Open, for example) the crowd has literally carried Phil around the course. He’ll feed off of this energy, and his opponents will have to deal with the noise and the cheers every time Phil pulls out one of his tricks.

3) He’s a different player now – Phil’s career record in the Ryder Cup is indicative of a player who has a hard time dealing with the extreme pressure cooker that is the Ryder Cup. We saw this with Phil, a lot, earlier in his career with regards to major championships as well. Phil has since shaken the major monkey, and it’s done a ton for his confidence and his ability to perform under the most intense pressure. I’d expect this to be his Ryder Cup coming out party, much like the 2004 Masters was for Phil in the majors.

4) Medinah’s length – At 7,658 yards, Medinah is going to be playing long. Like way long. Phil can bomb it with the best of them, and his high ballflight will help him stop the ball near the hole more effectively than many of the other players – especially the Euros who are used to playing in the wind. There’s a reason Phil excels at Augusta and stinks at the British Open.

5) His core competencies – When you think about Phil’s countless talents, the ability to bomb in is certainly one. But Phil’s long game hasn’t been so hot this year. He’s 101st in greens in regulation, and 166th in driving accuracy. This certainly is in line with the stereotype of Phil being a player who sprays it all over the place, then scrambles to recover. But there are two statistics that stand out to me – Phil is 7th on tour in strokes gained putting, and 6th on tour in birdie average. Birdies win matches, and if Phil is able to get the putter going at all he’ll make them in bunches.

Now the question is if Phil has a 10-footer to win the Cup, will he drain it? I wonder how his ups are compared to 2004…

The 2012 Ryder Cup is set to begin September 28th at Medinah Country Club in Medinah, Illinois. The big names and the usual Ryder Cup suspects will all be there – Rory, Tiger, Phil, Sergio – you get the idea. But as a team competition, this sure isn’t just McIlroy versus Woods (although that sure would be fun to watch in singles). It may very well be one of the lessor known players who tips the scale in his team’s favor.

As I thought about putting together my initial Ryder Cup predictions, I couldn’t help but notice the strength of the European team. It’s a pretty bulletproof group, although I’m shocked that Padraig Harrington didn’t make the cut. By most accounts that was due to a personality conflict with European  captain Jose Maria Olazabal. Regardless, my initial inkling was “big win for the Euros.” I’ve since back-pedaled on that stance, in large part due to the course – Medinah is certainly “American style golf” and at 7,658 yards it’s an absolute beast in terms of length. With four par 5s, the course certainly plays into the Americans’ hands. While I’m still picking the Euros to win, I think it will be closer than expected – and I think it may very well come down to one of the lessor known players acting as the “X” factor. Here are four guys that I wouldn’t be surprised to see make the difference.

For Team USA:

Keegan Bradley – Averaging 302.5 yards per drive off the tee on the PGA tour, Keegan Bradley has the length to tame Medinah. Normally I’d discount a 26-year-old Ryder Cup Rookie, but given that Bradley has proven he can handle major championship pressure (he won the 2011 PGA Championship), I’m reading that as guts of steel and the ignorance of youth. Nothing like reppin’ Vermont on an international stage.

Webb Simpson – Webb Simpson has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the world – he’s currently 8th in the Official World Golf Rankings. He’s won 3 times, including a major, and he’s only 27 years old. He’s also a pretty amazing putter, currently ranking 6th in putting on the PGA Tour. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a match-winning putt come off his blade.

For the Europeans:

Nicolas Colsaerts – I recently wrote about Colsaerts as one of the 5 European players I’d like to see play more on the PGA Tour. The man is crazy long, currently leading the Euro tour with an average drive of 317.7 yards. He’s easily the European best equipped to deal with Medinah’s length. Colsaerts has also proven to be a great match play player, capturing the 2012 Volvo World Match Play title on the Euro Tour.

Perhaps more importantly, Colasaerts is a rare Belgian golfer. The only thing the Euros care about more than representing their continent is representing their home country, and Nicolas has a rare opportunity to do that for Belgium.

Martin Kaymer – Martin Kaymer may be the single golfer that the more I watch, the more I’m impressed by him. He’s been a dominant player on the Euro Tour, winning 10 times since 2008. He’s also shown proficiency in match play, finishing 2nd in the 2011 WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. His game is all around rock solid.

With the international golf scene as competitive as ever and new-found rivalries forming at the top of the World Golf Rankings, this year’s Ryder Cup should provide plenty of fireworks. Just don’t be surprised if it’s one of these lesser known players setting them off.

A Belgian, a South African, a German, a Spaniard, and a Dane walk into a bar. Whaddya got? Just another week in the clubhouse pub at the most recent European Tour stop. In all seriousness though, the group below are all ranked in the top 90 in the Official World Golf Rankings, are all proven winners, and all have bank accounts worthy of your envy.

The Euro Tour is often forgotten by those of us stateside, who tend to care very little about any tournament unless Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, or Rory McIlroy is in contention. But to me, the Euro Tour is about as sexy as it comes. What could be cooler than running around Europe, with a bunch of Europeans, playing golf? Not a whole lot. While the PGA Tour has the flash and the prestige, we’ve seen several “unknown” major champions come from the Euro Tour as of late – Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen immediately come to mind. You may surprised to see these guys winning majors, but I can assure you their peers are not. The Euro Tour prepares professional golfers exceptionally well, with the players having to deal with less manicured courses and brutal travel schedules just to eek out their millions. Don’t be surprised if the names below pop up and win a big one soon – I for one would like to see each of them play a bit more here on this side of the pond.

1) Nicolas Colsaerts – A rare Belgian golfer, Colsaerts is currently 8th in the Race to Dubai (the European Tour’s money list) and is ranked 33rd in the world. That’s right, 33rd. That’s higher than the likes of David Toms, Geoff Ogilvy, Vijay Singh, Darren Clarke, Padraig Harrington and Retief Goosen, just to name a few. He’s won twice on the Euro Tour thus far but is perhaps best known for his length – he’s averaging an absurd 316 yards off the tee this year. Best of all, the man loves to rave and considers house music among his most important hobbies.

2) Branden Grace – At 24 years old Branden Grace has already had a career nearly all young South African players could only dream of. A product of Ernie Els’ golf foundation, Grace’s game has already drawn compliments from Gary Player. Better yet, he’s already beaten countrymen Ernie Els and Retief Goosen head to head (am I the only one wondering aloud if they let him win for the good of South African golf?). Branden is currently 11th in the Race to Dubai, and is just outside the top 50 players in the world coming in at number 51. Grace has won 3 times on the Euro Tour, with each of those victories coming this year.

3) Marcel Siem – A tall lanky German with a pony tail, Marcel Siem is not lacking in the personality department. He’s a veteran amongst this group, and has won twice on the Euro Tour. Siem also teamed up with Bernard Langer to win the World Cup of Golf in Barbados in 2006. He’s currently 13th in the Race to Dubai and 60th in the world.

4) Rafa Cabrera-Bello – A Spaniard who is 45th in the world, Cabrera-Bello has won twice on the Euro Tour. One of those victories came this year at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic.  After taking up the game at 6 years old, Rafa would go on to win the Spanish National Championship in the under-7 age bracket. He’d continue to win the same title each year all the way through the under-18 age bracket. His sister also competes on the Ladies European Tour.

5) Thorbjorn Olesen – Thorbjorn is a 23-year-old Dane, whose golfing idol is more-known fellow countryman Soren Hanson. This kid has one Euro Tour win under his belt, and is currently 85th in the Official World Golf Rankings. Better yet, he’s still improving – Olesen improved his game in almost every statistical category from 2011 to 2012 including dropping his stroke average by over a full stroke per round. With Thomas Bjorn getting up there in age, Danish golf needs a new king – why not Thorbjorn? His name is very much a combination of Thomas Bjorn’s anyways…

Keep an eye on these guys – you may just see them on a leader board soon. You can also catch Colsaerts in the upcoming Ryder Cup, as he was just asked by captain Jose Maria Olazabal with a captain’s pick.

All statistics courtesy of http://www.europeantour.com/.

Historic. Dominating. Superlative. Brilliant. Those are merely feeble attempts to come up with a word that truly describes how good Rory McIlroy was yesterday. In winning the PGA Championship by 8 shots, Rory became the PGA Championship’s second youngest winner, but more impressively, he won by the largest margin of victory ever. At 23 years old, Rory joins the likes of Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only 23 year olds ever to capture the PGA Championship. That’s pretty decent company, no?

Seriously though, Rory’s final round 66 was arguably the best round of golf I’ve ever seen – the kid literally didn’t miss a shot. And make no mistake about it, Kiawah Island is a brutal course with trouble looming everywhere. McIlroy not only avoided all of the trouble, but he did so without showing anything resembling nerves – he was in total command the entire round. I recall Tiger’s 15 stroke victory at the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach, and while Rory didn’t win be 15, his final round was of that caliber. It may have even been better.

This kid’s the complete package – he bombs it, is flawless with his irons, great around the greens, and let’s just say he had 24 putts in his final 18 holes yesterday. Remarkable. Rory is simply proving what everyone has been saying all along – he has the 6th gear that the other players don’t. He’s got that freakish level of talent and the ability to go super low. Tiger is the only other player I’ve ever seen that out of. Color me impressed.

The win moves Rory to number one in the World Golf Rankings, and make no mistake about it, he’s the best player on the planet right now. That’s right, I said it – Rory McIlroy is a better golfer than Tiger Woods is right now. No doubt about it. And while Phil Mickelson has long been considered Tiger’s chief rival, I think it’s unquestionable that Rory will emerge as a much larger threat to Tiger in this second phase of his career. He’s got multiple majors already – both 8 shot victories – and at 23 years old, he’s got a real shot at being one of the greats. If Tiger regains his form, to see McIlroy and Woods go head to head when playing their best might be witnessing golf at the highest level it’s ever been played at.

Best of all, Rory seems like a an extremely likable champion. He seems as humble as could be for someone so talented, and he seemed genuinely giddy with joy following his performance yesterday. All those female golf fans that now hate Tiger’s guts? They’re going to love Rory. But perhaps more importantly, Rory’s performance yesterday will undoubtedly grab the attention of his peers. They all knew he was awesome already, but Rory just scared the heck out of his fellow touring pros. Remember how the rest of the guys used to look at Tiger? Rory just put the tour on notice – you know you can’t beat him when he’s at his best, and he knows it as well.

I’ve read a lot of golf books in my day – frankly more than I’d like to admit. Everything from Tiger Woods: How I Play Golf to the nearly 400-page gem that is Dave Pelz’s Putting Bible. I’ve read books detailing struggling pros trying make a living on the European Tour, and I’ve read whimsical stories about falling in love with the windswept links in Scotland. Classics like Harvey Penick’s Little Red Book and Ben Hogan’s Five Lessons couldn’t escape me. And of all the golf book’s I’ve read, Hank Haney’s The Big Miss was easily the biggest page-turner, and perhaps the most insightful.

Hank Haney was Tiger Woods’ coach for about 6 years, and The Big Miss is his account of their years spent together. The duo would eventually split shortly after the Tiger Woods scandal broke. Haney’s account of his time with Woods is absolute gold for any golf nerd – there’s all the detail you could ever want in there about Hany’s coaching strategies and his work on Tiger’s swing. But at the end of the day what makes this book so remarkable is the insight it provides into the person that is Tiger Woods; a person so often veiled from the public as a result of his self-inflicted invisibility cloak. There’s no doubt that after reading this book I feel like I have a better understanding of Tiger Woods than I ever did before.

Before I dive in and give you a few juicy teasers, let me first address the critics of this book. Many assume that Hank Haney was fired by Woods, and that the publication of The Big Miss was a move made out of spite and an attempt to make a quick buck. If you read this book, it seems as though nothing could be farther from the truth. Trust me, I’m not one to be easily sold – I’m about as skeptical as they come, and I certainly was as I began reading. “You can’t talk shit on Tiger!” was my general mind-set. Remember the look on your dad’s face when the 25-year-old came to pick up your 17-year-old sister to take her on a date? Double that. That’s how skeptical I was when I began reading this book. And having finished it, I truthfully believe that Haney’s honesty was what makes this book such a great read. He shares many actual e-mails and texts that he exchanged with Tiger, and if he was lying I’m sure that it wouldn’t take long for a major lawsuit to come down on him. Let’s face it, Tiger is uber protective of his image. And at the end of the day, Haney readily admits that the publication of The Big Miss likely won’t win him any points in Tiger’s eyes.

Moving on.

The picture that Haney paints of Tiger Woods is generally what I had always suspected, but much more severe. Essentially Tiger has been surrounded by people from a very young age that have wanted a piece of him, typically for at least partially selfish reasons. Because of this, Tiger lives a life very much in a bubble. But what’s so surprising is that even those close to him, even those within his “inner circle,” are not immune to the bubble. Tiger, even after years of working with Haney and spending 100+ days a year with him, would routinely be incredibly moody and would give him and everyone else around him the silent treatment. He wouldn’t return phone calls. He generally seemed to show little regard to those who were loyal to him and offered their friendship.

One minute example, which Haney goes back to many times in the book, is the issue of the popsicle (I know you can just feel the suspense building). Haney spent many a night with Tiger and Elin, and he recalls that in the beginning the TV was almost always on during dinner. Elin decided to instate a rule whereby the TV could not be on during dinner, only to have Tiger instate a rule that when he was done eating he could leave the dinner table. He would subsequently scarf down his dinner, leave the table, and go watch TV.

While watching TV after dinner, Tiger often sat with Haney and treated himself to a post-dinner sugar-free popsicle. For years he’d do this, and he never once offered or asked Haney if he’d like a popsicle as well. One day Haney wanted himself a goddamn popsicle, and he sat on the couch in bewilderment because of how uncomfortable he felt asking Tiger simply for popsicle. He finally asked Tiger, who looked at him like he had 5 heads then muttered, “Sure.” It’s this sort of thing that was very unbecoming to Haney.

With regards to Tiger’s game, Haney writes quite a bit about Tiger’s fear of “the big miss” – a big miss right or left, particularly with the driver, that would lead to bogey or worse. He sees this as Tiger’s biggest hurdle, and one he worked tirelessly to provide Tiger with a solution to. His solution was a stinger with a driver, as well as a fade with a driver that would cost Tiger distance but guaranteed him that he wouldn’t miss left. Tiger was reluctant to put either in to play. Haney also vividly recalls one of Tiger’s first victories that Elin was around for. Elin met Tiger after the round and suggested that they throw a little party to celebrate the win because “that’s what Jesper (Parnevik) used to do,” when Elin worked for him. Tiger’s response was along the lines of “I’m not Jesper, and we’re not having a party. We’re supposed to win.”

Obviously the book is filled with details about the days leading up to and immediately after the Tiger Woods scandal broke. Haney vehemently states that neither himself nor Steve Williams had any idea of the goings-on. But the scandal aside, there are plenty of other glorious first-hand details in the book. For example, Haney shares a text that Tiger sent to him after Ian Poulter bummed a ride back to Florida on Tiger’s plane. Yes, Tiger thinks Poulter is a d-bag.

Haney is also particularly protective of his record as Tiger’s coach. Many reflect on Tiger’s best years as being in the early 2000′s, and they undoubtedly were. And while Butch Harmon coached Tiger to 8 major championship victories, Haney managed only 6 in his years with Tiger. That said, it is true that the swing Haney taught Tiger won a higher percentage of the time.

Ultimately it would be Haney’s call to break off his relationship with Tiger. He felt he had been as loyal as could be, and had genuinely tried to be the best friend and coach to Tiger that he could. But Tiger’s stand-offish nature, his reluctance to implement Haney’s ideas, and his general treatment of others drove Haney to end their relationship – an engagement for which Woods paid Haney only $50,000 per year.

But while much of what I’ve written about thus far sounds like sour grapes, Haney makes very deliberate efforts to not focus only on the negative. Haney is a man who has studied the great golfers in the history of the game as much as just about anybody, and he has no doubt that when Tiger plays at his highest level he’s far and away the best golfer that has ever lived. But perhaps more importantly, he holds himself and the others in Tiger’s inner circle accountable – accountable for not putting Tiger in check and pushing him to be less guarded, more honest, and generally a more well-rounded human being. In Haney’s eyes it was always all about Tiger with everybody around him, to the extent that no one dared question him or his actions. Tiger insulated himself, and ultimately if someone around him  had stood up to him and prompted him to be better, perhaps “The Big Miss” that we’ve seen as of late could have been avoided.

If you love golf or Tiger Woods, read this book. It’s fantastic insight into one of the most enigmatic athletes to ever reach the highest level of sport.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote that Tiger Woods should be the overwhelming favorite at the Open Championship at Royal Lytham & St. Annes. With the championship beginning Thursday, come Sunday afternoon Tiger could have finally silenced his critics and captured his 15th major championship – leaving him only 3 majors short of Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major championship victories.

I have always been one firmly in the “Tiger will reach Jack” camp – both before and after the scandal broke. Winning 4 more majors to tie Jack (and 5 to pass him) is no small feat – 5 majors in an entire career makes you an instant Hall of Famer. That said, Tiger has never been dealing the with same deck of cards as the rest of his mere mortal peers. While there are clear signs that dangers will continue to lurk during Tiger’s ascent of Mt. Nicklaus, no matter how I look at this thing it seems clear to me that Tiger will end up ahead of Jack. But how many majors will Tiger Woods retire with? Let’s tackle this question from a few different angles.

The basic, mathematical explanation – This formula is relatively simple, and perhaps the most accurate. To date, Tiger has played 64 major championships in his career, winning 14. This indicates a remarkable 21% winning percentage throughout his career. At this rate Tiger would need 23 more majors to win number 19, thus breaking Nicklaus’ record at the 2018 Masters.

Especially post-scandal, many will scoff at this. Here are a few of the most frequently cited reasons why this may seem unreasonable:

• Tiger is now 36 years old. For someone who first won a major in 1997, his “prime” is simply behind him.
• Tiger’s run of majors early in his career, at one point capturing 7 of 11 major titles, simply can’t be replicated.
• Tiger’s lost his advantage over other players, especially in terms of driving distance. Technology, age, and the fitness boom Tiger single-handedly created have since leveled the playing field.
• Tiger used to play a 43.5 inch Titleist 975D driver with a 43.5-inch steel shaft. He was considered long and straight. He now fears the “big miss” and doesn’t find the fairway as often having moved to a 45-inch graphite shafted driver.
• Tiger’s knee, which he’s had drained and operated on multiple times, will continue to inhibit his swing and keep him from playing or practicing as often.
• Tiger’s mental strength isn’t what it used to be. His time in a Mississippi clinic, as well as the scandal itself, broke him down. Doubt has crept into his psyche for maybe the first time.
• He’s tired and has lost of his drive. After what he’s been through in the past few years, how could be not be?
• Tiger’s feeling the pressure. The weight of the absurd expectations on him is beginning to wear him thin, and will only increase as he approaches Jack’s record. This was evidenced recently in his comments that he’s “only going to play for himself” – not Elin, not Nike, not Butch, not Stevie, not his foundation.

While I believe it’s true that all of these issues will affect Tiger to differing degrees, my counter argument is very simple – these issues have already had a massive influence on Tiger’s career, and I think they’ve mostly run their course. We’ve seen the knee and scandal-related issues in particular influence Tiger as of late – he hasn’t captured a major in his last 16 tries. Having finally returned to winning form this season, Tiger seems closer to being “back” than he has been in a few years. Think of it this way – before his recent 0-for-16 streak, Tiger had won 14 or 48 majors – an amazing 29% conversion rate. Given all he’s been through, I think assuming he can continue to convert at 21% is more than fair. Afterall, that means he doesn’t even average a major championship per year.

The length of a golfer’s career explanation – There’s  no doubt about it – none – that golfers are playing better later in their careers in this day and age. It’s a combination of technology and fitness. Fred Couples seems to almost win the Master’s every year at 50+, Tom Watson threw away a British Open at 59, and Vijay Singh won 9 times in a season and reached #1 in the world for the first time well after turning 40. Jack Nicklaus won 14 majors before his 37th birthday, and Tiger’s sitting on 14 with two majors to play before he’ll turn 37. He’s on pace, and will undoubtedly be a serious contender for longer than Nicklaus’ was.

I think that realistically, Tiger has 10 more years that he’ll be able to play at an exceptionally high level. Jack Nicklaus last won a major at 46, and trust me, Tiger at 46 will be a far superior physical specimen to Nicklaus at the same age. Assuming he misses a similar number of majors as he’s missed thus far throughout his career due to injury and other distractions (he’s missed 6 of 70 majors since 1995, or 8.57%) over the next 10 years, Tiger will play in 38 of the next 42 majors. If he continues to win at his 21% rate, Tiger will win 8 more majors in the next decade. That’d leave him with 22, well surpassing Nicklaus’ mark.

The focus explanation – For a long time now, I’ve made excuses for Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods. Just as both have been known to be “the best ever” at their respective sports, both have also received their share of criticism for some generally poor, selfish behavior. I am truly a believer in the school of thought that says to be the absolute best you need to be somewhat cocky, somewhat selfish, and able to put up blinders when need be in an effort to self-motivate yourself to the absolute highest level of performance. This is an argument for another day, but I think it’s one that’s shown itself with pretty significant regularity throughout history. Nick Faldo immediately comes to mind – his insularity, focus, and superiority over other players was striking similar to Tiger’s while he was golf’s undisputed best player in the late 80′s and early 90′s.

I think Tiger’s scandal will ultimately help him narrow his focus. He’s made it clear that his commitment to his sponsors and his marriage are not going to be what they once were. I think that once the immediate effects of the scandal are in his rear view, Tiger’s focus will narrow that much more – he’ll care about his kids and his golf game and little else. For Tiger, Jack Nicklaus’ record is a life long journey that he set out on at shortly after birth. Frankly, you just can’t say the same about any of his sponsorship deals or his marriage. His eyes are now on the prize more than ever before, and I don’t think they’ll waiver much in any direction (cue the waitress in the little back dress jokes).

So how can Tiger’s narrowed focus answer the how many majors question? It can’t in any way that’s highly measurable, but I think that it’s important in dispelling the critics who will cite outside distractions at the cause of Tiger’s derailment on his quest towards 19 majors.

The in-the-hunt explanation – Every golf fan knows that Tiger is the greatest closer in golf history – give him a lead in a major after three rounds, and he almost always gets the job done. That said, even the casual golf fans also knows that Tiger’s proven to have some issues with both his putter and especially his driver as of late. Going forward, Tiger’s swing needs to be good enough to consistently put himself in contention in the majors.

Of players with 3 or more majors, most tend to win about 1/3 of the time that they find themselves in the hunt. Nicklaus won 18 majors, but finished in the top 3 a total of 45 times – a conversion rate of 40%. Tiger has won 14 majors but only finished in the top 3 a total of 23 times – good for a 60% conversion rate. That said, Tiger’s going to need to put himself in the hunt at least 9 more times to win 5 additional majors, and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to keep converting when he’s in serious contention as efficiently as he has to date. With 64 starts at majors and 23 top 3 finishes, Tiger finds himself in serious contention about 35% of the time. Assuming he plays 42 more majors in his career, he’d be in contention 15 more times in his career. If he maintains his current conversion percentage, he’d capture 9 more majors. If he ended up closer to the 33% we’ve seen out of major champions with 3+ major victories, he’d win 5 more majors. So by this recipe conservatively we’re looking at 19 majors, and at his current rate of winning we’re looking closer to 23 titles.

With the insights gained from all of these explanations, deciding on a final number of majors for Tiger is as much an art as it is a science.  While the explanations above suggest that Tiger will end with a major total somewhere in the lower 20′s, I do think that in some cases we’re being a bit optimistic with regards to Tiger’s health and his ability to keep winning such a high percentage of the time. But more importantly, I worry about the amount of gas left in the tank. Why? Because after he wins his 19th he’ll have no higher mountain to climb. His life goal will have been achieved, as I think we’ll see his desire wane whether he likes it or not. This will conveniently happen as his children are in their teens, and his attention will be needed elsewhere.

Nick Faldo, a champion with whom I’ve already compared Tiger, speaks very candidly about losing the drive to practice to the extent that he needed to in order to be the best after winning his final major. Hank Haney, Tiger’s former coach, even wondered aloud about Tiger losing some degree of drive following his monumental win one leg at the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines.

At the end of his career, I think Tiger will have accumulated 20 major championships. So why 20 and not 19? Because the closest comparison to Tiger that I can make is the very man whose record he’s chasing, Jack Nicklaus. Nicklaus famously captured his final major at 46, years after his best game had left him. I’m predicting Tiger’s game will putter out (no pun intended) after he wins his 19th, but he’ll similarly give us one last glimpse of greatness well into the twilight of his career. One final fist pump, one final roar if you will. 20 majors is a good round number, and if Tiger gets there he’s undoubtedly the best in the history of the game.

The next great storyline in golf may be identifying the heir to Tiger’s throne. Inevitably another great one will rise, but I bet you Tiger’s record of 20 major championships lasts longer than I do.

Tiger Woods. Lee Westwood. Luke Donald. Rory McIlroy. And…? Who is missing from this group? Maybe Phil Mickelson? Bubba Watson? Adam Scott? Incorrect. This group is the best 5 golfers on the planet, and the missing link is yesterday’s US Open winner Webb Simpson.

It’s always difficult for casual golf fans to know what to think when a Ben Curtis, a Todd Hamilton, or a Charl Schwartzel wins any golf tournament, let alone a major championship. Many would assume that Webb Simpson is joining the list of over-achieving major champions – after all, there are so many uber-talented players out there yet to win their first major. The Dustin Johnson’s of the world if you will. I can assure you that while Webb Simpson is not a household name, he’s made a name for himself amongst his fellow players. He’s one of relatively few players that absolutely was ready to win a big one.

Let’s take a look at what Webb Simpson has done in just the last two seasons (he’s a young buck at 26 years old). The 3 wins (now including a major) and 17 top ten finishes speak for themselves. Few fans realize that for 95% of tour players, a single win represents a great season. Three wins in a two-year span is a veritable hot streak, no doubt about it. But perhaps more telling are some of Simpson’s stats. He’s currently leading the PGA tour in putting, which is a pretty phenomenal way to win yourself a US Open if you hit the ball decently. He’s 9th on the PGA tour’s money list this year, following up a 2nd place finish last year when he won over $6 million. He also finished 2011 2nd in the Fedex Cup standings, 3rd in cuts made, and 8th in putting.  Although he’s far from the first to coin it, “drive for show, putt for dough” mine as well be the mantra of Simpson’s game.

Simpson is not a big personality on tour, which is fine by me (I’d prefer to stuff Rickie Fowler and his stupid orange outfits into a locker in the clubhouse). Yet it was nice to see that he’s not a golf-drone, when he quipped “Enjoy your time in jail” with a small smirk when a British nutjob interrupted his post-victory interview with Bob Costas (who navigated it all with ease, as always) by squawking like a bird. It was also awesome to see Webb sit with his wife who is 7 months pregnant as he watched Graeme McDowell miss a birdie attempt and the US Open fall in his lap (college tuition in the bank). NBC then created a pretty hysterical situation, as they didn’t realize that the monitor Simpson was watching the action on was delayed at least 10 seconds. It appeared as though Simpson and his wife exchanged nervous glances for quite some time rather than celebrating when McDowell missed, which would have been a very peculiar reaction to say the least. It was a pretty uncomfortable thing to watch until Simpson actually reacted to the missed putt on the delayed monitor and NBC realized what had happened.

All in all, this was very much a feel good win for a young and rising star on tour. The best feel good wins in my opinion are when older veteran players win for the first time, a la Darren Clarke at last year’s Open Championship. But for a young player to capture his first major, this was a fun one to watch.

The victor aside, this chapter in US Open history can’t be closed without some other recognition. For Tiger Woods, it clearly was a disappointing week. Fresh off of a “W,” Woods played like a man with a plan on Thursday and Friday. Starting his first 6 holes on Sunday +6 would be his demise; as I wrote last week, gone are the days of Tiger winning without his A-game. Jim Furyk – I feel bad even writing it because he’s gritty and I love him – but the man choked his brains out on 17 and 18. Off all players, he’s on the short list of players I would not have expected that sort of collapse out of. I also really enjoyed watching Ernie Els in contention.

Olympic Club itself also deserves some recognition. When I turned on my TV yesterday, I saw little but HD fog with something resembling a golfer teeing off in the mist. As they say, San Fran sure ain’t San Diego when it comes to weather. But I didn’t hear too much grumbling about the weather or the course being unfair, and with all the best players in the world playing over a 4 day period not one ended up at even par or better. Bubba Watson, fresh off a Masters victory,  even called the course “too hard for him.” The USGA must be jumping for joy this time around.

Well done to Webb Simpson, who now should be on any golf fan’s radar. Anyone who can roll the rock like he can is a threat to win week in and week out.

The scene could not have been scripted more appropriately – Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, Tiger on the cusp of tying Nicklaus in career PGA tour victories, and one horribly impossible shot finding the bottom of the cup and stirring up a fist pump reminiscent of the ghosts of Tiger’s past. If you’re a sports fan, you’ve seen the highlights by now – Sportscenter’s anchors were practically drooling on their desks waiting the deliver the highlights. And as a fan, Tiger’s second win of the year came as a reminder that at least some of that “old” Tiger magic is still in there.

By winning his 73rd PGA tour event, Tiger tied Jack Nicklaus for second most all-time – albeit at 10 years younger than Nicklaus was when he won his 73rd event. Only Sam Snead’s 82 victories sit ahead of Tiger – there’s little doubt that he’ll get there, but the real mountain that Tiger is trying to climb is winning 5 more major to surpass Nicklaus’ 18. Tying Jack with 73 wins was merely a stepping stone on Woods’ path to Mecca.

All of this got me thinking – I’ve heard so much about Tiger since his life took that dramatic turn two years ago. My friends who don’t follow golf closely have their opinions, my mom has her opinion – seemingly everyone has a dramatic opinion with regards to the current state of Tiger – both his golf game and his personal life. I’ve heard all parties out, and I still think the American public as a whole just isn’t getting it. It seems to me as though very few people outside of those who intimately cover Woods for a living have any clue.

Tiger Woods is misunderstood. That may be even more cliche than saying “Tiger banged so many waitresses” or “Tiger will never be the same.” Cliche, but I think very much true. For the record, I’d like to extrapolate on my opinions with regards to where Tiger is at – take them or leave them as you choose.

Tiger Woods is not “back.” His swing is different, his game is different. He’s not winning at the clip that he used to. He’s coming in 40th place in majors. He’s not dripping with sponsorship deals. That said, it is true that Tiger never left. Tiger Woods is Tiger Woods – the guy has had a lot on his mind these past two years, and golf took second place for the first time in his life. It hurt his game, and it probably shook his confidence, but to steal the lovely words of Josh Beckett “sometimes there are more important things.” The Tiger that never left was the Tiger that fist pumps, the Tiger that never misses a gutsy putt to bag championship. Tiger the competitor is the same as he’s ever been, and that’s the Tiger we all want to see. His game is now just now beginning to catch up.

I see two primary reasons for Tiger’s recent struggles – both of which seem amazingly obvious to me and have nothing to do with waitress A or waitress B in the little black dress. The first is swing changes. Tiger has a new coach, a new caddy, and a new swing – these changes take time to become repeatable enough that you can trust them under pressure. We’ve seen this with Tiger before, and we’re seeing it now.  Second, and even less surprising, is his personal life – his relationship with his kids specifically. I have no intimate knowledge of Woods’ family life, but I know that Tiger worships his parents and especially his dad, giving his upbringing a ton of credit for his success. Woods’ children are still too small to grasp the events that led to Elin attacking Tiger’s car with a golf club, but one day he’s going to have to explain himself. Few situations could be worse than explaining your unfaithfulness to your children, and I have no doubt that Tiger is driven to be the best possible dad that he can be with this glaring mark already on his record.

In general, Tiger is villianized by many as a cold-hearted adulterer, and his actions do speak for themselves. While I’m in no way defending Woods, how many of those passing judgement on him have been thrust into the international spotlight as a teenager? Woods was handed the world – all of the money, fame, talent, and yes women that he could ever want at an age that is just too young to be making fantastic decisions in the inevitable scenarios that he faced. He fell into some bad habits that clearly persisted throughout his marriage. Did Tiger have a Rolodex of women in every city he traveled to? I doubt it. I’m sure that his infidelity was no one-off, but the speculation of Woods’ hundreds of women is absurd. For anyone in the spotlight to the degree that Tiger is, it would be impossible for that lifestyle to last as long as it did prior to him getting caught.

So what’s my point in all this? Whether you want to believe it or not, Tiger is a loving father to his kids and was not running a Charlie Sheen-esque operation. I don’t make excuses for anyone who is given the world and screws it up, but I think those passing judgement need to imagine the unique circumstances Woods has faced. Did he make mistakes? Was he an ass? Absolutely. But is he the monster he’s been portrayed as? No sir.

As for his game, I don’t think Tiger will ever be the Tiger of 2000. I don’t expect 10+ win seasons, I don’t expect he’ll ever be winning majors by 15 strokes. I do expect Tiger to pass Sam Snead’s record of 82 victories, and I do expect him to pass Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors. Tiger’s had more conviction towards that latter goal than he ever had towards his marriage – that’s just the reality of it. Only one person is destined to be the best golfer in the history of the sport, and that man is Tiger Woods. Trust me, it’s not a curse.

From here on out, Tiger will regain his form. He’ll win his next major sooner rather than later, and it will be a big deal. But Tiger has in many ways screwed himself by bringing a younger generation to the game – more players, younger players, nearly of whom are trying to replicate the game that has made Tiger so famous. As Tiger gets older he’ll win more than his share – likely more than anyone else – but I think this new Tiger will only win when his game is on. If he’s playing well he’ll be capable of winning any week and on any course, but his B- game just isn’t going to lead to W’s anymore. That’s the new Tiger Woods as I see it… do you agree?