By Jimmy Cunningham, howiGit New York Writer, Manhattan, NY
The drama of the week here in New York was what to do with Jeremy Lin. The Rockets offered the restricted free agent a 3-year, $25 million dollar deal and it was up to the Knicks to match it. Three years at $25 million would be steep enough but the last year at $14.8 million is what made this a killer contract. The Knicks decided not to match the offer and will go with the duo of Raymond Felton and Hamptons party animal Jason Kidd. While I would have loved to see Lin stay on board I think the Knicks made the right decision and here’s why.
The third year of the contract
Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose are the only point guards in the NBA this year that made more the $14.8 million. Is Jeremy Lin the 4th best point guard in the league? No. Will he be in 3 years? I doubt it, but maybe. Let’s for argument’s sake say he is. $14.8 million is not the total amount the Knicks would have to pay for Jeremy Lin. Because the Knicks already have Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler under contract, the Knicks would be in the luxury tax. After luxury tax fees the Knicks would have to pay $43 million to have Jeremy Lin on their roster in that third year. Will Lin be worth $43 million dollars? I cannot imagine how well he would have to play to deserve that.
Is Lin really that good?
Jeremy Lin was a great story last year. A guy who does not look the part, went to Harvard, and had already been cut twice in 2011-2012 took over the NBA for a few weeks. I would probably win an argument that “Linsanity” was the best story of the NBA regular season last year. He put up numbers in his first few games that no one has ever put up. He kept the Knicks alive when their star player was injured. He was able to put on a show night after night. But is Lin actually good? The small sample size makes it impossible to tell. He has only played 35 games in his career. Would you be willing to bet $43 million dollars (plus the $10 million he would get in the first 2 years of his contract) that Lin is the basketball player we saw for a few weeks? The Knicks did not think it was worth the gamble, I can’t blame them.
The Mike D’Antoni factor
Mike D’Antoni is known for being an offensive mastermind. His fast-paced offense is a point guard’s dream. Steve Nash elevated his game to the MVP level twice while playing in D’Antoni’s system. But to compare Lin to Nash would not be fair, even if Nash has never received $14.8 million in a year. A fair comparison would be Ray Felton, the same chubby guy who will replace Lin in New York this year. Both played for D’Antoni in New York for a short period of time. Most would say Lin is a better player then Felton; this isn’t a conversation if Felton is better, right? Who would you pick?
Numbers under Mike D’Antoni:
17.1 points per game, 9 assists, 3.6 rebounds 3.3 turnovers, 42.3 FG%, 32.8 3-PT%, 86.7 FT%
14.6 points per game, 6.2 assists, 3 rebounds, 3.6 turnovers, 44.6 FG%, 32.0 3-PT%, 79.8 FT%
I would assume most people are picking player 1. And the winner is Raymond Felton! Congrats Ray, go have yourself a piece of cake.
I cheered hard for Lin when he was going absolutely nuts earlier in the year. I watched the games I could (thanks Time Warner!) in legit disbelief waiting for the ride to end. And for a while it did not. I wish I could have watched Lin mesh with the Melo, Amar’e, Chandler core. But unfortunately the Rockets made an offer that could not be matched. The Knicks, for the first time in a long time, made a move that was not the flashiest. Three years from now we will know if this unpopular move was the right one.
Good article Jimmy. I could not agree more. I think if Lin is giving significant playing time, he’ll prove to be a good NBA point guard. That said, it’s not about Raymond Felton of anyone else. It’s about the contract’s third year being disastrous for the Knicks. No doubt about it, they made the right call – albeit not the flashiest one.
Well thank you sir.
It was just too big a gamble. If the Knicks wanted to go over the cap in three years by 14 mil they might be able to find a better player. Chris Paul played for just above 15 mil this year for example.
The first time the Knicks were relevant since the 90s was while Lin was playing for them. I won’t argue the money is worth it in year 3, but I can’t stand the argument that Lin’s contract is solely what will put them over. Why don’t we say Stats contract puts them over and ask if he is worth $55-$60 million for that year? There is a lot they could have done in the third year to dump an expiring contract and make room so they wouldn’t have to pay that luxury tax.
The real thing is they blew it by not offering him a contract to begin with. They let him go and get market value, the Rockets were smart enough to make an offer the Knicks couldn’t and probably shouldn’t match, and now they lose a huge chunk of revenue as well as a lot of excitement for the team. Fun article –> http://observer.com/2012/07/msg-stock-jeremy-lin-effect-leaving-07172012/
My question is this: The Knicks universe finally has someone that every fan wants, everyone loves, and has the chance to develop into a very good player but NOW is the time their pockets become light?
I would say being in the playoffs make a team relevant, and they were there before Lin got there but thats not the argument.
The reason it is Lin’s contract that is what is being talked about with the cap is because the others are signed. Stoudemire 2 summers ago, Carmelo’s last spring, and Chandler before the season. That puts them right on the cusp of the tax, Lin puts them over. I wont argue with you that STAT might not be worth it but Lin has played 35 games, I will take Melo(top 10 probably top 5), Chandler (Defensive MVP), and even Amar’e over Lin now. But that was not even an option, they are signed they wont be moved, especially not for Lin.
Because he was a restricted free agent with early bird rights, the Knicks could not offer him anything but a mid level exception from what I understand. (I am not sure of the midlevel, but I know they could not offer him a long term deal).
Yes now is the time to become light, because the CBA was made last year that made these restrictions.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?id=8173221&_slug_=nba-new-york-knicks-match-houston-rockets-offer-jeremy-lin&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fstory%3fid%3d8173221%26_slug_%3dnba-new-york-knicks-match-houston-rockets-offer-jeremy-lin
if he sucked they could have used a stretch provision and diluted his contract for a few years and not taken that luxury tax blow in year 3.
Also it was my understanding they could have offered him a contract (Ian Oconnor suggested 4 years for $24 million or so) and they told him to test the marketplace. Which is also why he was reportedly upset and surprised the Knicks didn’t act early and offer him anything.
so instead of being in cap hell for 1 year, they get to be handcuffed by cap for 3 extra years, just in case this guy is a good player?
I think Ian O’Conner is wrong. Ive heard form multiple places that they could not offer a long term
I would like to know if Ian Oconnor is wrong or not I’ll try to find it. If they weren’t able to offer him any reasonable deal like 4yr/$20-$24 million than I agree more with the Knicks. I am under the impression they don’t him to go get market value and decided not to offer him a contract initially figuring they would match whatever, and then the Rockets said EAD with their absurd contract.
In order to make their free agent a restricted free agent, a team must submit a qualifying offer to the player by June 30. The qualifying offer is a standing offer for a one-year guaranteed contract, which becomes a regular contact if the player decides to sign it. This ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without offering a contract themselves. The amount of the qualifying offer for players on rookie “scale” contracts is based on the player’s draft position1. The qualifying offer for all other players must be for 125% of the player’s previous salary, or the player’s minimum salary (see question number 16) plus $200,000, whichever is greater1. A player can elect to accept his qualifying offer and play the following season under its terms. This is sometimes done in order to become an unrestricted free agent the following summer (see question number 45).
To me that reads that the Knicks could only offer him 1 year at 125% of the previous year salary. Thats what they did and Lin tested the market and got a deal no one else would give him.
Now some question for you Noodler
What about the fact the Felton played better under the same coach with pretty much the same team (and that coach is no longer there) and they get him at a third of the price. They also got deeper with Kidd.
Can you explain to me how Lin can sell more tickets of an already sold out arena?
All merchandise sales are split evenly between all teams so the Knicks will get as much for Lin jersey sales for the Rockets then they would in New York. So they arnt going to see more money there.
They could potentially get more sponsors but what if Lin is not good, what if he got hot for a month. Every team in the league passed on this guy who is now being paid as a top 5 point guard less then a year ago, because he got hot for a month the Knicks should gamble every other player decision for the next three years? because he is popular in China town they should say forget winning?
Whether or not any one agrees the Knicks feel they are building a championship contendor with their big three. But they will need help. To say all we need is Jeremy Lin and nothing else is not smart, to pay 43 million to a guy who has played 35 games is not smart. If you are the Houston Rockets and need an attraction, maybe it is. But when you are in New York, with your own TV network, to gamble your future for a fan favorite and some sponsor dollars is just not a smart decision.
You are harping on the wrong number Jimmy. He is getting $5 mil this year and $5 mil next year. That is the salary you are paying. It is not $43 million and it is not $14.8 million per year. Worry about year 3 when you get there. There are lots of ways to get out of that luxury tax, as I posted earlier. Its easy to shop expiring contracts and most of the Knicks roster will be expiring that year.
You can’t sell more tickets, you can fill the arena better though. Sell outs don’t = every seat filled. I don’t know if thats the case or not with MSG but I never made that argument.
MSG has already lost $50 million in value since they announced Lin leaving. Look – I just found the luxury tax money.
And for stats that similar, I would say Lin has a ton more upside. Felton has peaked in his potential. You can say they were relevant for making the playoffs before him, but lets be serious – no one considered them a contender 2 years ago and there wasn’t nearly the excitement for the team.
You cant worry about year three when it gets here because it will effect every persosal decision up until that point. Next summer you have no chance at chris paul, even if you have a 1% now.
I would rather be relevant by building a championship contender, then being relevant for a few weeks in the middle of the year. Which is all Lin has ever been in his basketball career.
It would have been no different than if they didn’t sign Felton and just signed Lin. They could have had Lin and Kidd then signed paul and traded Lin in year 3 if he wasn’t as good or they could have dumped another one of their huge contracts.
I’m not saying Lin is the answer, or even that much more than Felton, but when they “will pay a billion dollars to keep him” then sign all these other players instead its pretty ridiculous to complain about money when he is only getting $10 million over 2 years.
The Knicks never said that billion dollar nonsense, it was an idiot from ESPN who said that.
and to say he is only getting 10 mil on two years is insane. the third year is part of the contract, and the part that makes a difference. If it was two years ten mil they sign him.
Look at how cute you two are, fighting over the Knicks. In general I tend to lean toward camp J-Bone on this one – I see your points Finoodler, but I don’t think you sign players when you’re trying to build a championship team just because the fans love them (in New York). Also, the 35 game sample size scares me. That’d be like the Red Sox offering Will Middlebrooks a 3-year contract where he makes $43 million in his third year right now.
A j-bone and Geoff tag team, who would have thunk it.
The sample size would scare me also and would be my main deterent. That and the fact that he was 85% and didn’t play in the playoffs. Weak sauce.
Like I mentioned I don’t even know if Lin is better than Felton. I think he has more upside than Felton though and I think they won a lot more games with Lin this year than without him. I’m just more annoyed at pretending that his contract is $43 million in year 3. It’s not. His contract is $14.8 million.
Good analogy with Middlebrooks. Although I haven’t seen him play one game yet all I can do is read about him and obviously its a pretty similar situation.
but for the knicks it would be 43 million. Thats like leasing a car and not counting the money down, the taxes fees, and the third year triples in value. Oh and you dont know if you are getting a good car.
You are assuming his entire contract is over the salary cap. Why are no other contracts being accounted for? Does that mean they can’t sign ANYONE that year since the big 3 are taking up the ENTIRE salary cap in 2014?
The car analogy was dumb. If you’re a tag team with Geoff let him do the analogies….
i already explained why it is his contract that would bring him over the cap.
They would have the 5 million mid level exception and can sign players to the vet min. Lin would not be eligible for either of those because he would be under contract in year 3.
and you are dumb if you cant see the difference between the sticker price and what they would actually have to pay for having him.
I can see the difference – who cares what they have to pay for him? That’s the Dolan family money. I already showed you that the Dolan’s lost $50 million in the two weeks that Lin had signed a contract with the Rockets, so their family money is all relative at a price like that.
And I would better understand if you showed me what the contracts were in that year and what the cap is.
The cap number in 2014 is expected to be 58 mil, Melo, Amar’e and Chandler will make 61 mil in 2014 combined. So yes every dollar of that contract will be above the cap.
With your logic the Yankees should have signed Lewis, Pujols, Reyes, Bell, and every other free agent this past year becasue they can. Just because you can do something does not make it a good decision.
and i care because i would rather have some flexibilty to sign players that I know are good, not are hoping are good and have alot of fans.
Don’t take this argument to the ridiculous and start comparing this to baseball. You’re better than that.
So then theoretically, every single person they sign in that year will count towards the salary cap wouldn’t they? So Marcus Camby is going to cost them $10 million that year since he is due $4.5 million and the cap hit will be $5.6 million (4.5 times 1.25). And they will have to do that for every player on their team right? Am I missing something here?
I assume you are correct, all the more reason not to sign any guy to a 14.8 mil contract let alone someone you are not sure if they can even play
There is some formula for every 5 million dollars on the contract you get taxed more so under 5 mil might not be 1.25 but i dont know for sure. For the sake of argument i will say that is right
I read first $5m is 1.25, next $5m is 1.5, next $5m is 1.75. But who knows what they are talking about anymore. And I’m also not sure if its the first $5m TOTAL or the first $5m of each contract. If its the latter then Lin’s contract of $14.8 would be much worse than 3 contracts at $5m. Again though, I don’t exactly know what the deal is with all that.
I was under the impression it was every 5 mil in the contract, so signing a max guy would be crippling but you can still field a team with lower level. But i have no idea what i am talking about. I do know it was too much for Lin. If Lin ends up being a top 5 pg, good for him, I hope he does. But with what the knicks would have to pay it was not worth it.
let’s face it guys. not every team can sign a kwame brown. Go sixers!
What are the Sixers?